Showing posts with label The O-N-D Chronicles. Show all posts
Showing posts with label The O-N-D Chronicles. Show all posts

Thursday, October 08, 2009

Catching a Ride on a Smile

From the “When you need a lift ” department

The wine trail this week has taken me to Austin and back home to Dallas. Holiday showcases, wine tastings, a visit with the iconic professor of Italian, an evening with a master sommelier and a fellow Angelino, and many many people, talking about wine and popping corks. It’s been a busy week, and we ain’t finished yet. But that's not what this post will be about.

There have been some real crazy things that have happened, but I also noticed a pattern that has developed, and one that I am happy to recognize. And that is of the ascendancy of more energized women in the wine business, and let me tell you: they are young and they have a whole new way of looking at these things that I think is gonna rock the wine business.

Scene 1: At a wine trade holiday tasting. I’m standing there listening to my colleague, Damon Ornowski, preaching the gospel of Kracher to both the willing and the uninitiated, and off in the corner of the room I see a group of lively young women, talking to themselves. They’re giddy. They’re excited. They’re newbies. But the energy and the excitement that is streaming off of them is infectious. I catch their smiles and watch them as they skip from table to table; every wine a new experience. A Pinot Noir here, a Rioja there, it’s like watching someone when they take their first step. Maybe it’s the party-like scene, maybe it’s that it doesn’t seem like work to them. I hope it isn’t just that. What energizes me is their unbounded jubilation at being in a business that they are really excited about. Remember that scene in “Catch me if you Can” with Leonardo di Caprio, where he is walking with his gaggle of new stewardesses? It looks something like that.

Scene 2: I’m talking to a young lady who works in the business. She is intense and very, very competitive. She also has amazing knowledge of wine and food, more like someone twenty years her senior who was into wine and food in a deep way. In this era which is shaped by the plate tectonics of an industry and economy in turbulence, as a relative newcomer, she as well has had to deal with those dynamics. And being relatively new to the scene, there are many layers above her, peopled with those mere mortals who also have their own fears, agendas and concerns. It’s a lot for anyone to deal with, but with one who is just startling their new life, in a new world, I can sympathize with her. Funny thing, it’s also a brave new world for this ‘ol silverback as well. Every day is a call to re-invent and energize oneself to find a new way to solve the old problems. My inspiration from her came from her willingness to ask questions and to listen to possible solutions and then to go forward. I caught her smiles. She won’t get stung by the bees. She’ll be the one up to her neck in tupelo honey.

Scene 3: At a wine bar in Dallas, showing some really nice Italian wines, a Kerner white and a trio of Tuscans, one Chianti and two Brunellos. At the bar, along with the wine bar manager and a fellow server were two young ladies. One was of Italian descent and the other was an exotic Asian-Indian lass. The wine bar manager was pulled away from our presentation by a client who wanted to talk his ear off about Walla-Walla. The other chap had to do double duty, tasting with us and watching the tables. The two young ladies were on board from the get go. Even while the Walla-Walla chap was flapping around, making our work a little hard with his distracting inanities about the joys of Walla Walla (I wanted to ask him where he worked so I could go to his place of work and pretend to be an expert in his line of work), the Asian-Indian lady looked me straight in the eyes and telepathed in a Shakti-like way that she was paying attention and to focus on her, not the buffoon at the end of the bar. The ancient soul emerged and soothed the silverback. Back to work.

One of the Brunellos was rustic and was showing a fair amount of volatile acidity. You know what? They loved the wine. They were not know-it-alls, they didn’t act bored with listening to a chap old enough to be their dad (or their professor). No, they bought the ticket for the ride and they rode all the way to the end. They were ready and smiling. Right on the money. Making my day. There is an old saying, “'E femmene ne sanno na cchiú d'o diavulo”. In the Neapolitan dialect it translates to “women know more tricks than the devil.” I’m not sure if the young women I encountered were tricking me and the world around them, but if they were, more power to them. And if they just happen to have the seed of passion for this business, there is a future waiting for them with tons of joy. This is my prayer. And you know what they say about prayer? No one is a firmer believer in the power of prayer than the devil.

You better watch out, you better not cry, better not pout...


Images from PSA Airways ( a once-upon-a-time California airline, similar to Southwest Air)

Sunday, October 04, 2009

Tear Down This Wall

Thinking my last post came from a frustration of seeing prices going up, not down, and listening to Italian winemakers telling me how much the crisis was over, I sought some retail therapy over the weekend. With an hour to kill while waiting for a plane to arrive I stopped in at a nearby shopping center and cruised the aisles: Neiman-Marcus, Saks, JC Penney’s and Burlington; roughly 4 levels of the retail channel.

Inside a nearly empty environment, I walked from store to store. Starting with the higher levels, I noticed sales. A shirt on sale for $150, a jacket with an Italian sounding name (made in China) for $300. A pair of Hugo Boss shoes (also made in China) for $250, a t shirt for $80. All of a sudden Super Tuscans for $200 weren’t sounding so strange. We could just market them to the same people that were in these stores. If there were any.

I asked a clerk if this was normal, so quiet for this time of the day. “Well, there is probably a football game on,” was her reply. Probably so. But most people seldom pass up the opportunity to buy a deconstructed Armani suit on sale for only $1250 in lieu of watching sports on TV, yes?

Chances are many people were still safely ensconced behind the wall of their gated community. Out here in the sparse plains of North Texas, north of the DFW airport, the sprawl from the urban center has led to giant themed communities, where people sit in their 5,000 square foot homes and drive their extended cab pickups and SUV’s and wield their platinum or titanium credit cards to find a life of meaning. Have some in our Italian wine community bought into this vision of America too?

A close friend told me that when his Italian visitors come to NY they want to go to Nike, Abercrombie and Fitch, Apple and other places that signify a level of status, of having arrived at the end of the trail of the dream their parents and grandparent started on. Large appetites aren’t only confined to Americans.

And while some of the Italians go back home and present their latest Super Tuscan to their friends onboard their newest 40 meter sailing ship in the hopes of getting some relevant feedback, have the decisions they have made been any better informed that ones made by people who lived behind the Berlin Wall or within the walls of a compound in Taliban held Afghanistan?

A multimillionaire tells their winemaker friend, “Your Merlot from Maremma is so wonderful. But it must be worth more than $50. It is at least twice more valuable than that.” I kid you not. True story. Really happened. Killed the wine dead. Will not resuscitate.

Informed decisions are not made on the deck of a yacht, working on one's tan as one is streaming into Porto Cervo for a well-deserved weekend of rest and relaxation. The world outside of the enclosure one situates one within is a different story. A shirt on sale for $150 just isn’t going to have a wide world market right now (or maybe not for a long time, when $150 will be more like $25.).

Gambero Rosso to the rescue
As alluded to in the earlier post, Gambero Rosso seems to be the mantra many Italian winemakers are chanting. Maybe it was the wonderful summer they had in Panarea or Lampedusa that gave them this clarity of thinking, but back in the world of the living, the reality is that Daniele Cernilli cannot save your brand, no matter how many red shrimp he throws at it. If you are making a Marche Rosso that will ultimately have to sell on a wine list in San Francisco for $100, think again. If this were a battle against Hizbollah or the Sendero Luminoso, would you wave a sheet of paper on it with three red glasses to achieve your aims? If so it better be on a large white flag.

On a lay-over between coasts, one of my Italian importer friends visited this weekend. His portfolio is young, but so far this year he has moved through 3+ containers (about 4,000 cases) in his primary market, metro NY. He's on target for moving about 8,000 cases his first year. Not bad for a one man show with a company that started up at the end of 2008, just as the economy was imploding. His secret? Keeping his relationships alive with one-on-one interaction and keeping the wine prices in check. Nothing over $30 wholesale. Falanghina selling for $9, A Maremma Rosso for $11, an Aglianico del Vulture for $9, a Valtellina Superiore for $14, a Langhe Nebbiolo for $14. Solid wines, made by small farmers, not large co-ops with fancy labels or marketing budgets. The work of the day. Mano a mano. Everyday. On terra firma, not terra incognita.

So while some of the winemakers talk of coming to America, which in reality is an extended grand tour of NY, Miami, Vegas and LA-SF, the ones who are gaining ground are doing these things:

1) Visiting other markets and keeping their relationships alive.
2) Turning away from expensive (and tiring) barrique aged wines
3) Listening, really listening, to their colleagues in the field who have been in this battle for 5-10-20 years and know what is going on.
4) Responding quickly and not doing it half-heartedly.
5) Putting their personal pleasure, entertainment, recreation aside while coming to these markets to really serve the needs of the consumers, the intermediary agents and ultimately to their family and business back home.

Today’s battle needs the correct response. When the machine gun was introduced into the theater of World War I it marked a turning point that the older way of fighting was over. Soldiers on horses were no match for a mechanized tank formation. And that is what things like Gambero Rosso, focus groups on yachts in Porto Cervo and out-of-touch within-the-compound mentalities are. The battle field has changed, as has the overall landscape. The Berlin Wall is down. It is time overdue for the Italian to come out from their gated cloisters of comfort and to rejoin with us to retake the hill we all have been battling over for so many years.




Thursday, October 01, 2009

The Acid Test

In the wine business, we have come upon the sacred time known as O-N-D. The 4th quarter (October-November- December) has traditionally been a period when wine sales head into high gear. But walking the halls recently, talking to salespeople at month end, I am hearing other stories. People are just not picking up the Kool-Aid like they used to.

CNN recently had a story about the glut of high priced wine. The following, lifted from that piece: “If I buy a bottle for $100 from Napa Valley -- and believe me, there are hundreds -- I'll mark it up to $225. But no one is buying those," says wine director Rajat Parr at RN74 in San Francisco. As a result, Parr is saying no to all Napa Cabernets until customers drink what's left.

Bordeaux vintages are backing up. Established importers are backing away from future commitments. There is a tsunami of classified growth wines hovering. Not quite the perfect storm, more like a scene from Cloverfield. It’s fixing to get ugly.


And our Italian winemakers, let’s take Tuscany: how are they responding to these climes?

Two publications recently have brought out their reviews for the Tuscan reds.

The Wine Spectator – here’s how some of their top rated wines flesh out – simply by rating, price (per bottle) and availability

Tuscany
98 points $100 -500 cases made
98 points $120 -450 cases imported
97 points $285 -6,250 cases made
96 points $319 -150 cases imported
95 points $70 -1,335 cases made
95 points $75 -200 cases imported
95 points $95 -1,250 cases imported
95 points $110 -2,515 cases made
95 points $118 -500 cases imported
95 points $125 -370 cases imported
94 points $89 -1,000 cases imported
94 points $102 -300 cases imported
94 points $215 -3,000 cases imported
94 points $240 -30 cases imported
93 points $95 -29,165 cases made
92 points $165 -50 cases imported


The Wine Advocate – some of their finds- just ratings and suggested retail (per bottle).
Tuscany
99 points $435
97 points $360
98 points $320
95 points $283-349
95 points $275
97 points $233-365
92+points $230
98 points $210
94 points $190
(94-96) pts $175
97 points $163
95 points $161-199
93 points $160
96 points $157-194

There are some good, even great, wines here. Which makes this all the more of a quandary. But the lowest priced wine in the group is $70, with many at $100-$200-$300. And there are back vintages of many of these wines still lingering in importers and wholesalers warehouses, retail shops and restaurant wine lists.

And here we find ourselves at a crossroad. At the busiest time of the year. Who is going to drink these wines and at what price?

Good news: Most of these are red wines from very good vintages that will age. Bad news: That's not good enough news.

I go back and look at the Bordeaux example - how they dig out of uncertain economic times. They’ve done it more often than any other region, made an art out of it. And at this time they are at one of the epicenters of the luxury wine meltdown, Napa and Champagne being vigorously tested as well. Many folks are watching, searching for a passage.

The Italians likely imagine their situation is different, particolare. The emails have been streaming in lately, especially since Gambero Rosso has released their latest tre bicchieri list of winners.


It was much pleasanter at home, when one wasn't always growing larger and smaller, and being ordered about by mice and rabbits.
-Alice (in Wonderland)

It’s a tough situation. You don’t want to tell the winemaker that their baby is ugly. And it is less about beauty than perception. But it boils down to value. You want how much for a bottle? You only made 1,200 bottles? Surely there are 1,200 people we can find to pay $250 a bottle for your baby? People are still buying Ferraris and Pradas, yes?

And so if I talk them down to make their wine sell, not at $250, but at $125, what will it matter? So what are we to do?

I don’t know where I heard it recently, but someone was talking about the “recovery” and compared it to a saucer. Flat bottom. Slow rise. Short peaks. Long ride.

Sayonara, from the abyss, to the Long Tail effect, when it comes to small quantities of highly rated, hard to get wines at ultra-premium prices.

We’ve crossed over into black swan country facing a defining acid test.




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